Ongoing Research Projects

Working life and its development 

While retirement ages are rising and working lives are extending, working longer is challenging for some older workers. Especially those who have had long careers of performing demanding work may not be able to continue working beyond a certain age. Moreover, in the public debate it has been asked whether it is socially just that retirement ages for these workers rise in the same way as for others. In Finland, the 2017 pension reform introduced the years-of-service pension to offer a possibility to retire at the age of 63 for those with long and demanding working lives while the statutory retirement age started to rise.

In this project, using administrative register data from the Finnish Centre for Pensions, we study the recipients of the years-of-service pension between 2018 and 2023. We compare them to others who retired between age 63 and the rising retirement age on a disability or partial old-age pension, as these are the only remaining pension schemes that offer an exit route from paid employment before the statutory retirement age. The aim is to identify how specific the group of years-of-service pension claimants is in terms of their sociodemographic characteristics, career length and stability, health, the nature of their past jobs, and their pensions.

Schedule: 2024–2026

Researchers: Aart- Jan Riekhoff, Anu Polvinen

Publications:

Currently, about 50,000 individuals per year receive an informal care allowance from their local wellbeing services county in exchange for providing informal care for a family member. Despite the common perception that informal carers are mainly elderly, more than half are between the ages of 18 and 68. In the years to come the number of informal carers is likely increase due to both population ageing and savings measures in the health and welfare sector due to poor public sector finances.

Previous studies have shown that there is a negative correlation between informal care provision and informal carers’ outcomes such as labor force attachment, income, health and well-being. However, there is less evidence about the causal relationship between informal care and labor supply and earnings. As the number of working-aged informal carers is likely to increase over the years, the need to understand how this affects the labor supply of informal carers is further stressed. 

The objective of this study is to obtain information about the economic situation of informal carers. To address this question, we answer the following questions:

  • Who are the informal carers?
  • What do informal care spells look like in terms of the size and continuity of the informal care allowance?
  • What do the careers of formal carers look like, and how is informal care associated with income and pension accrual?
  • What is the impact of informal care on labor supply, earnings and pension accrual in the short and long run.

The informal care allowance accrues pension up to age 68, and thus informal carers can be identified in the registers of the Finnish Centre for Pensions. We collect a comprehensive set of data about informal carers for years 2005–2024, such as background characteristics, labor force participation, income, pensions and receipt of benefits and pensions. The analysis is limited to informal carers aged between 18 and 68. 

Schedule: 2024–2026

Researchers: Susanna Sten-Gahmberg, Jyri Heinänen, Susan Kuivalainen

Publications: 

Career length is one of the key indicators presented by the Finnish Centre for Pensions in relation to monitoring the development of the pension system and the implementation of pension reforms. The Finnish Centre for Pensions is the only Finnish institution to systematically release statistics and research data on career lengths in Finland. Career length based on the Finnish Centre for Pensions’ earnings and accrual register has been calculated since 2012. It depicts the length of time spent in an employment relationship or insured under the Self-employed Persons’ Pensions Act during the review period.

In this project, we develop alternative career length indicators which make use of register data. The indicators can be used alongside and as complements to traditional data on career length. The indicators include:

  1. length of employment, which depicts the time spent in the same employment relationship or time insured under the Self-employed Persons’ Pensions Act, (when employment relationships for the same employer include short breaks lasting for a few days, the periods of employment are combined into one employment relationship;
  2. length of career, that is, length of employment when combining different employment relationships and periods of self-employment (excluding overlaps);
  3. benefit period, which depicts the length of time on benefits for which pension accrues;
  4. active career, which depicts the length of a career, reduced by periods of benefits that overlap periods of employment and self-employment, such as parental leaves or long sickness leaves; and
  5. time of pension accrual, which includes time on benefits for which pension accrues both during and outside the career.

These indicators can be used to measure, among other things,

  • how many employment relationships or periods of self-employment careers consist of,
  • how much of careers are active working times, and
  • how much of the pensionable time is made up of benefits and of gainful employment.

The publications of this project describe how the indicators are formed and review how they are distributed between various population groups by gender, educational level, socioeconomic status and way in which the career ends (unemployment, disability pension or old-age pension following gainful employment). Career indicators are also compared between time periods and cohorts.

Schedule: 2022−2025

Authors: Noora Järnefelt, Mikko Laaksonen, Pauli Pekkala, Tarja Karjalainen

The project will provide new economy-wide statistical analysis based on new research on platform work and its performers, combining it with other work and its links to later working careers (wages, job stability, volume). Such research has not yet been produced for Finland. The project utilizes extensive, representative register and survey data. Comprehensive research information is needed for work-life development, lobbying and policy-making. The project is funded by the Finnish Work Environment Fund.

Schedule: 2025–2026

Researchers: Aart-Jan Riekhoff, Susanna Sten-Gahmberg, Merja Kauhanen (Labore)

In recent years, light entrepreneurship (in Finnish: kevytyrittäjyys) i.e., self-employment through billing service companies, has become more common in Finland. In this study, we examine light entrepreneurs, defined as persons who have received income from an identified billing service company, in years 2017-2024. We use detailed register data covering years 2012-2024 from Statistics Finland and the Finnish Centre for Pensions to study the careers of light entrepreneurs. We will answer the following research questions:

  1. What characterizes light entrepreneurs in terms of personal characteristics and employment history, and how do they differ from the general population?
  2. What does light entrepreneurship look like, and how is it combined with other kinds of work?
  3. How do the careers of light entrepreneurs develop over time (before, while and after they are light entrepreneurs)?
  4. To what extent does light entrepreneurship lead to more stable entrepreneurship?
  5. What is the long run impact of light entrepreneurship on labor supply in terms of employment and earnings? And how does light entrepreneurship affect accrual of pensions?
  6. How do income components and pension insurance of light entrepreneurs compare to other entrepreneurs and to those who are not entrepreneurs?

The results from this research are of value in the development of legislation and policies regarding new employment forms, social security, and pensions, and more broadly for developing services for new types of employment. The results can also be of interest internationally and for academic research, as there is little information about individuals who engage in new forms of employment.

Schedule: 2023–2026

Researchers: Susanna Sten-Gahmberg, Aart-Jan Riekhoff 

Publications:

In recent years, working in retirement has become increasingly more popular. In this project we examine how working in retirement has changed in recent years and how long the periods of working in retirement are. Working in retirement is examined both among those on a disability pension and those on an old-age pension. The data is based on composite data of income distribution and pension register data. 

Schedule: 2020–

Researchers: Anu Polvinen   

Publications:

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent lockdown in Spring 2020 caused a major shock to the labour market. Not everyone was affected by this shock to the same extent. One group that may have been particularly vulnerable were those graduating from secondary vocational or tertiary education during the pandemic, suffering potentially long-lasting consequences of the lockdown for their employment chances and earnings development.

In this project we study the employment and earnings trajectories of those who graduated and entered the labour market during the first months of the pandemic in Finland. We estimate the impact of graduating during COVID-19, as well as analyse inequalities between graduates in terms of gender, type of degree and the socioeconomic background of their parents. We use detailed monthly data from the Finnish Centre for Pensions on graduates’ employment, earnings and social benefits, coupled with data on graduates’ parents’ earnings and education.

Schedule: 2024–2026

Researchers: Aart-Jan Riekhoff, Satu Ojala (Tampere University)

Working in retirement has become more common in recent years. This project investigates how various individual-level factors are associated with working in retirement and whether the profiles of people working while drawing an old-age pension have changed in recent years. Our research is based on register data of the Finnish Centre for Pensions and extended income distribution statistics of Statistics Finland.

Schedule: 2025–

Researchers: Anu Polvinen, Susan Kuivalainen

Publications:

Retirement 

Retirement on a disability pension and receiving a sickness allowance have become less common in the 2000s, but in the last few years, the number of persons receiving these benefits has grown, particularly due to mental disorders. In this study, we examine trends relating to disability pension claims, retirement on a disability pension and rejected disability pension claims, and related predictive factors, particularly from the point of view of the benefit processes.} We examine the labour market position and the receiving of different social security benefits as predictors of retirement and pension claim rejections. The study is based on combined register data of Kela, the Finnish Centre for Pensions and Statistics Finland that covers the entire population of Finland. The research questions include: How has claiming and retiring on a disability pension developed in the 2000s in different population and diagnosis groups when looking at earnings-related and national pensions as a whole? Have the factors that predict retirement on a disability pension and the process of retirement on a disability pension changed in the 2000s? What is the labour market position and use of social security benefits of disability pension applicants before and after claiming a disability pension when considering also the rejected claims? The study is done in cooperation with Kela.

Schedule: 2020–2025

Researchers: Mikko Laaksonen, Jenni Blomgren (Kela), Riku Perhoniemi (Kela), Anu Polvinen 

Publications:

In this study we will examine factors underlying retirement as well as post-retirement perceptions. The study will be conducted as a questionnaire survey on the significance of factors relating to individual situation, work and the pension system for the timing of retirement. We will outline perceptions of how the financial and social situation changes at retirement and thoughts on working in retirement.

In the autumn of 2022, we sent a questionnaire survey to 5,000 randomly selected persons who have retired from work in the years 2019–2021. We will supplement the data with information on working life and retirement from the registers of the Finnish Centre for Pensions.

The data will be processed in accordance with the GDPR. The answers of individual persons cannot be identified from the results. More information on the data protection responsibilities of the Finnish Centre for Pensions https://www.etk.fi/en/about-us/responsibilites/data-protection/.

Schedule: 2022–2025

Researchers: Sanna Tenhunen, Noora Järnefelt, Susan Kuivalainen, Jyri Liukko, Satu Nivalainen, Liisa-Maria Palomäki, Anu Polvinen, Juha Rantala, Aart-Jan Riekhoff, Susanna Sten-Gahmberg

Julkaisut:

The purpose of our research is to describe the various employment, unemployment and retirement paths of individuals who transitioned to a temporary disability pension in 2018, four years before and after the onset of the pension. The research describes the individual-level factors as well as the development of income of those who have transitioned to different paths. Our research is based on extended income distribution statistics of Statistics Finland and related register data.

Schedule: 2024–

Researchers: Anu Polvinen, Aart-Jan Riekhoff, Riku Perhoniemi (Kela)

In this research project we examine the link between the exceptional earnings-related pension index increase and retirement on a partial old-age pension and working. At the beginning of 2023, earnings-related pensions were raised by an exceptionally high earnings-related pension index. As a result of the increased earnings-related pension index, a clearly larger number of persons drew a partial old-age pension or retired on a full old-age pension at the end of 2022 than before. The aim of this project is to explain which factors were linked to drawing a partial old-age pension because of the earnings-related pension index. Later on, we will examine how retirement due to the exceptional earnings-related pension index is linked to, for example, working after drawing the pension.

Schedule: 2023–2025

Authors: Ilari Ilmakunnas, Susanna Sten-Gahmberg

Prior to 2005 Extended Unemployment Benefit (EUB) scheme was eligible to individuals aged 57 and above once they had been unemployed for 500 days, that is, individuals who claimed earnings-related unemployment benefit at age 55. Eligible individuals could remain on EUB until age 60, after which they transferred to Unemployment Pension (UP) until they reach OP age. This combination of pathways led to the so-called ‘unemployment tunnel’ (UT).

Starting 2005, for cohorts born in 1950 and onwards the minimum eligibility age for EUB was raised to 59. For these same cohorts, as part of the 2005 reform, at age 60 UP was no longer available and instead individuals could claim additional days of unemployment allowance/EUB until reaching state retirement age. The age threshold of the UT scheme was increased from 57 to 58 in 2010 (EUB claims possible at age 60) for all cohorts born in 1955 and onwards, and to 59 (EUB claims possible at age 61) for all cohorts born in 1957 and later in 2014. We will evaluate the effects of the increase in minimum eligibility ages to EUB in 2005, 2010 and 2014. The outcomes include employment, unemployment and earnings.

Moreover, until 2013 early retirement at age 62 was possible. At the time, eligibility age for a full ordinary pension was 63. Individuals who wished to retire early incurred a penalty of 0.6% of their ordinary pension for every month prior to age 63 at which they claimed. Starting 2013, EOAP was abolished. Our goal is to assess the impact of the reform on the economic outcomes including employment, unemployment, and inactivity among affected cohorts. We are especially interested in asymmetric impacts of the reform by sector.

Schedule: 2025–2027

Researchers: Ricky Kanabar (University of Bath), Satu Nivalainen

The Finnish Centre for Pensions and the University of Tampere carry out a study that maps out rehabilitees’ views and experiences of the various stages of rehabilitation. Persons who participate in vocational rehabilitation in the form of a work trial in the spring of 2023 are interviewed for the study.

The study focuses on the following questions: What are rehabilitees’ experiences and views of applying for rehabilitation and drawing up a rehabilitation plan? What are the rehabilitees’ experiences of work trial and the time after the work trial? According to the rehabilitees, how does rehabilitation improve work ability and the possibilities to continue at or return to work? How does cooperation with the other parties involved work throughout the entire rehabilitation process, that is, during the planning stage, the work trial period and afterwards?

Schedule: 2022–2025

Authors: Jyri Liukko, Jarna Pasanen (Tampere University), Susanna Sten-Gahmberg

The individual early retirement (IER) scheme which had relaxed medical criteria, was abolished as an independent program and fused into ordinary disability pension (DP) scheme in 2004. However, the conditions for DP were relaxed to match those under the abolished IER. At the same time, the lowest eligibility age for relaxed conditions was increased from 58 to 60 years. We analyse benefit applications and trends in receipt following the 2004 reform among cohorts affect-ed before and after the reform. Our intention is to analyse the composition of the groups pre/post reform. We use total register data of the Finnish Centre for Pensions from years 1995–2017.

Schedule: 2020–

Researchers: Ricky Kanabar (University of Bath), Satu Nivalainen, Mikko Laaksonen, Noora Järnefelt

We will conduct a survey those taking the partial old-age pension between 2019 and 2024. The survey covers 5,000 randomly selected persons who received a partial-old age pension in these years. We will examine the reasons behind taking a partial old-age pension, working before and after taking it, knowledge about the pension and satisfaction with the benefit. The goal is to conduct the survey by the end of 2025. In early 2025, a quick survey for the partial old-age pension recipients will be carried out to assist in the planning of the actual survey.

Schedule: 2025–2026

Researchers: Satu Nivalainen, Liisa-Maria Palomäki, Ilari Ilmakunnas, Susanna Sten-Gahmberg, Sanna Tenhunen

The number of people retiring on a disability pension at a young age has increased throughout the 2000s. This study examines the employment history of young people on a disability pension using data on annual working days, earnings, pension accrual and pension amounts. It also examines the duration and permanence of retirement, as well as the study, sickness benefit and rehabilitation histories of young disability pensioners. The study is based on register data of earnings periods and social benefits available to the Finnish Centre for Pensions. The sample consists of persons born in 1989, 1990 and 1991 who are on a disability pension at the age of 30 or have been on disability pension at a younger age. The reference group is those who have not been on a disability pension before the age of 30.

Schedule: 2024–2025

Authors: Mikko Laaksonen, Susanna Sten-Gahmberg

This study explores the relationship between working conditions and coping on the one hand and the timing of retirement on the other. Working conditions include, for example, opportunities to influence work, flexible working hours and support from the workplace to continuing working. With regard to the timing of retirement, we are interested in retirement at or at least within one year of reaching one’s retirement age. The data come from the “From work to retirement” survey, which is a representative sample of those who transferred from paid employment to old-age pension between 2019 and 2021 (3,400 persons).

Schedule: 2018–2025

Researcher: Satu Nivalainen

Pension adequacy 

In this research project we examine how earnings change after drawing a partial old-age pension. Previously there were only rough descriptions of what happens to earnings when starting to draw a partial old-age pension. The aim is to illustrate in much more detail than before both changes in earnings and what earnings trajectories those who draw a partial old-age pension have. The study also provides new information on the intensity of working after drawing a partial old-age pension.

Schedule: 2023–2025

Authors: Ilari Ilmakunnas, Susanna Sten-Gahmberg

In this project, we examine household consumption (including structure, amount and consumption rate) in different age groups and age cohorts, as well as changes in them over the past decades. We examine consumption and changes in consumption based on age but also on the household’s life phase, family structure, socioeconomic status, income and residential area.

The aim is to publish several articles on this subject in the next few years. The intention is to gain up-to-date information on how consumption changes with age. The studies will be based on data from Statistics Finland’s Household Budget Survey.

Schedule: 2024–2026

Authors: Kati Ahonen and Sanna Tenhunen

In this article, we look at how households’ age structure, equivalence scales and housing are reflected in the economic wellbeing of pensioners. The data consists of questionnaire survey data of the Finnish Centre for Pensions, consumption and wealth data of Statistics Finland and Eurostat’s data on income and living conditions (EU-SILC).

Schedule: 2018–2024

Authors: Kati Ahonen, Susan Kuivalainen

Publications:

In this research project we examine how the net income of partial old-age pension recipients changes after pension receipt. Previous research has not taken into account, for example, income transfers received and paid or capital income. In this research project, we also examine how the level of pre-pension income is related to the receipt of a partial old-age pension. Our research provides new information on how the partial old-age pension affects the financial income of the pension recipient. Our research also focuses on how the income levels vary according to labour market position. Our research is based on Statistics Finland’s income distribution.

Schedule: 2025–2026

Researchers: Ilari Ilmakunnas, Juha Rantala

We continue to produce new and up-to-date information on pensioners’ perceptions of their livelihood and economic wellbeing. In the autumn of 2023, we will repeat the questionnaire survey “Pensioners’ income and economic wellbeing” that we carried out in 2017 and 2020. The survey, carried out online and by post, is targeted at the pensioners who responded to the previous surveys. Our aim is to better recognize factors that affect pensioners’ perceptions of their livelihood and follow changes in these perceptions during retirement.

In our analysis, we focus on the reporting on central indicators (for example, economic satisfaction, covering usual and necessary expenses, consumption), but we also present information from new viewpoints. They include incurring debt, wealth, financial relations between the spouses and causes that prevent working in retirement.

The material will also be used in the University of Helsinki’s research project Hoivan kustannukset (Costs of care), which looks at how old-age pensioners can afford care, meet health care and medical expenses and how their economic situation has changed relative to their health.

Handling personal data is governed by the privacy statements (in Finnish and Swedish): Tietosuojaseloste (pdf), Dataskyddsbeskrivning (pdf), Tieteellisen tutkimuksen tietosuojailmoitus_ETK_HY.

Schedule: 2020–2024

Authors: Kati Ahonen, Ilari Ilmakunnas, Susan Kuivalainen, Anu Polvinen, Liisa-Maria Palomäki, Anniina Kaittila (University of Turku)

Publications:

Read more on Etk.fi:

The Pension Barometer examines how well Finns know pensions and how well they think pensions are implemented. The Barometer reveals Finns’ perceptions of how well they will manage financially in retirement and measures their trust in the pension system. 

The Pension Barometer is based on annual interviews carried out with about a thousand people who live in mainland Finland. The survey allows researchers to monitor how people’s opinions, perceptions and trust in the pension system change and develop.  

Researchers: Sanna Tenhunen, Susan Kuivalainen

Schedule: 2017–2026

Publications:

Read more on Etk.fi:

The “Views on Pensions”-survey outlines Finns’ opinions on how well the Finnish pension system works and how trustworthy it is, as well as how people have prepared themselves financially for their time in retirement. The survey also explores Finn’s knowledge of pensions.

In the autumn of 2024, we sent a survey to 5,000 randomly selected Finnish citizens aged 25–67 years. This is the second time we carry out this survey. For more information on the previous survey and other surveys on trust in the pension system, go to Questionnaire surveys – Finnish Centre for Pensions.

The processing of personal data collected in connection with the survey adheres to the requirements of the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) of the EU and Finnish national legislation.

The first results were published in 2024.

Schedule: 2023–2025

Researchers: Sanna Tenhunen, Liisa-Maria Palomäki, Kati Ahonen, Jyri Liukko, Ilari Ilmakunnas, Susan Kuivalainen

Financial sustainability of the pension system 

We will assess how the statutory pension expenditure and the average benefits have developed, as well as the long-term financing of private-sector earnings-related pensions. We will assess the expenditure and contributions with the long-term projection model of the Finnish Centre for Pensions. The model simulates the operations of the statutory pension system and makes it possible to issue projections to meet the forecasting and planning needs of the pension system.

Schedule: Ongoing. Most recent report published in the autumn of 2019.

Researchers: Kaarlo Reipas, Heikki Tikanmäki, Mikko Sankala

Publications:

Read more on Etk.fi

Studies Scientific articles

Finnish Centre for Pensions – Central body of and expert on statutory earnings-related pensions